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Current Warnings and Watches
 
     Lee County Current Weather Advisories     

NO CURRENT ADVISORIES

THERE ARE NO ACTIVE WATCHES, WARNINGS OR ADVISORIES

 
NWS Forecast
 
Tonight

Slight Chance Thunderstorms. Chance for Measurable Precipitation 20%
Slight Chc
Tstms
Lo 69 °F 		Monday

Slight Chance Thunderstorms. Chance for Measurable Precipitation 20%
Slight Chc
Tstms
Hi 84 °F 		Monday
Night
Slight Chance Thunderstorms. Chance for Measurable Precipitation 20%
Slight Chc
Tstms
Lo 72 °F 		Tuesday

Slight Chance Thunderstorms. Chance for Measurable Precipitation 20%
Slight Chc
Tstms
Hi 86 °F 		Tuesday
Night
Slight Chance Thunderstorms. Chance for Measurable Precipitation 20%
Slight Chc
Tstms
Lo 73 °F
Wednesday

Slight Chance Thunderstorms. Chance for Measurable Precipitation 20%
Slight Chc
Tstms
Hi 87 °F 		Wednesday
Night
Slight Chance Thunderstorms. Chance for Measurable Precipitation 20%
Slight Chc
Tstms
Lo 75 °F 		Thursday

Slight Chance Thunderstorms. Chance for Measurable Precipitation 20%
Slight Chc
Tstms
Hi 90 °F 		Thursday
Night
Slight Chance Thunderstorms. Chance for Measurable Precipitation 20%
Slight Chc
Tstms
Lo 74 °F
full forecast »

 
Tropical Activity
 

National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico

 

Tropical Storm ALBERTO

  • Tropical Storm ALBERTO Public Advisory Number 5
    Issued at 500 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012 000 WTNT31 KNHC 202044 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012012 500 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012 ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST IS DISCONTINUED... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.9N 80.0W ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM SE OF SAVANNAH GEORGIA ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM S OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 235 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM THE SAVANNAH RIVER TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. COASTAL INTERESTS FROM NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA TO THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA SHOULD STILL MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ALBERTO. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WAS LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE 30.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.0 WEST. ALBERTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H...BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND DRIFT SOUTHWARD TONIGHT. A NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION IS FORECAST ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF ALBERTO IS EXPECTED TO STAY OFF THE GEORGIA AND CAROLINA COASTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS...INCLUDING RIP CURRENTS...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTS OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...GEORGIA...AND SOUTH CAROLINA THROUGH MONDAY. PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER BERG ]]>
  • Tropical Storm ALBERTO Forecast/Advisory Number 5
    Issued at 2100 UTC SUN MAY 20 2012 
    
000
WTNT21 KNHC 202044
TCMAT1
 
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012012
2100 UTC SUN MAY 20 2012
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM THE SAVANNAH RIVER TO SOUTH SANTEE
RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
COASTAL INTERESTS FROM NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA TO THE OUTER BANKS OF
NORTH CAROLINA SHOULD STILL MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ALBERTO.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.9N  80.0W AT 20/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 235 DEGREES AT   5 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE  20SE  40SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE  50SE  40SW  30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.9N  80.0W AT 20/2100Z
AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.1N  79.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 30.8N  79.8W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE  40SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 31.2N  78.6W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  50SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 32.5N  76.6W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 34.7N  73.8W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  60SE  50SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 38.0N  66.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  50SE  40SW  20NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.9N  80.0W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
  • Tropical Storm ALBERTO Forecast Discussion Number 5
    Issued at 500 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012 
    
000
WTNT41 KNHC 202045
TCDAT1
 
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012012
500 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012
 
ALBERTO DOES NOT HAVE THE TYPICAL VERTICAL WIND PROFILE OF A HEALTHY
TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THE AIR FORCE PLANE THAT SAMPLED THE STORM ONLY
MEASURED MAXIMUM 850-MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 37 KT...YET SFMR
VALUES WERE AS HIGH AS ABOUT 50 KT.  THE SFMR ESTIMATES ARE LIKELY
TOO HIGH BASED ON COINCIDENT SPIKES IN THE RAIN RATE AND A
WELL-DOCUMENTED HIGH BIAS AT LOW-END TROPICAL STORM WIND SPEEDS. 
IN ADDITION...DROPSONDE DATA FROM THE AIRCRAFT DO NOT SUPPORT WINDS
OF 50 KT NEAR THE SURFACE.  THE INTENSITY IS THEREFORE BEING HELD
AT 40 KT.  THE AIRCRAFT DATA SUGGEST THAT THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS
DECOUPLED...AND THE SURFACE CIRCULATION MAY NOW BE TAKING SOME TIME
TO SPIN DOWN.
 
ALBERTO IS INGESTING DRY AIR...AND IT HAS MOVED OVER SHELF WATERS
THAT ARE COLDER THAN 26C.  IN ADDITION...WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE MARKEDLY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 
ALTHOUGH THE CYCLONE WILL TRAVERSE THE GULF STREAM AGAIN WHEN IT
ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD ON MONDAY...THE OTHERWISE HOSTILE
CONDITIONS SUGGEST THAT SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION IS UNLIKELY. 
SMALL FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY
DEPENDING ON THE BEHAVIOR OF DEEP CONVECTION...BUT OVERALL LITTLE
CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS ANTICIPATED.  THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY
THE BULK OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.  ALBERTO COULD BECOME POST- 
TROPICAL BY WEDNESDAY AS IT MOVES TOWARDS EVEN COLDER WATER...WITH
DISSIPATION POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY.
 
THE MOTION HAS BECOME SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE DAY...AND IT APPEARS
THAT ALBERTO IS BEGINNING ITS ANTICIPATED COUNTER-CLOCKWISE LOOP.
THE BLOCKING PATTERN IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. IS STILL
EXPECTED TO BREAKDOWN THROUGH MONDAY...AND ALBERTO WILL RESPOND BY
ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LONGWAVE TROUGH.
THE 12Z ECMWF MODEL RUN...LIKE THE PREVIOUS ONE...IS STILL A LITTLE
SOUTH OF THE REST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS MODELS THROUGH 48 HOURS
BUT A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH AT 72 HOURS...HEDGING TOWARD THE ECMWF
SOLUTION.
 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  20/2100Z 30.9N  80.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  21/0600Z 30.8N  79.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  21/1800Z 31.2N  78.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  22/0600Z 32.5N  76.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  22/1800Z 34.7N  73.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  23/1800Z 38.0N  66.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  24/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
  • Tropical Storm ALBERTO Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
    Issued at 2100 UTC SUN MAY 20 2012 
    
000
FONT11 KNHC 202045
PWSAT1
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   5          
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012012               
2100 UTC SUN MAY 20 2012                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WAS LOCATED NEAR      
LATITUDE 30.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       1       3       5       8      14      NA      NA
TROP DEPRESSION 18      28      32      30      34      NA      NA
TROPICAL STORM  79      66      58      55      46      NA      NA
HURRICANE        1       3       5       7       6      NA      NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1        1       3       5       6       5      NA      NA
HUR CAT 2        X       X       X       1       1      NA      NA
HUR CAT 3        X       X       X       X       X      NA      NA
HUR CAT 4        X       X       X       X       X      NA      NA
HUR CAT 5        X       X       X       X       X      NA      NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   40KT    40KT    40KT    40KT    35KT    NA      NA  
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
NANTUCKET MA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
OCEAN CITY MD  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
NORFOLK NAS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
NORFOLK VA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
WALLOPS CDA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
CAPE HATTERAS  34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   8(10)   3(13)   X(13)   X(13)
CAPE HATTERAS  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
MOREHEAD CITY  34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   6( 9)   2(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
WILMINGTON NC  34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   3( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
MYRTLE BEACH   34  X   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
CHARLESTON SC  34  1   2( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
SAVANNAH GA    34  3   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
MAYPORT NS     34  2   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
JACKSONVILLE   34  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BERG
  • Tropical Storm ALBERTO Graphics

    Tropical Storm ALBERTO 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
    5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 20 May 2012 20:45:45 GMT


    Tropical Storm ALBERTO 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 20 May 2012 21:03:44 GMT

Hurricane Local Statement(s)

Tropical Storm ALBERTO

Cyclone Information by XML (protoype)
Issued at  Sun, 20 May 2012 20:44:23 GMT. This is only a prototype and the file format WILL change without notice.
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABNT20 KNHC 191556
TWOAT 

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1155 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 120 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
HAS BEGUN TO ACQUIRE MORE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...AS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER.  
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE...AND IT COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD OR WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...
PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE.  ADDITIONAL SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS WILL BE
ISSUED ON THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY OR SUNDAY...IF NECESSARY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

&&

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/CANGIALOSI